One of the most asked questions is; what is the weather is going to be like during a particular time frame? This cannot be honestly answered by anyone in advance. Any of us that have made multiple trips can tell you that answer differs wildly from year to year.
Extended forecasts are highly inaccurate once you go 10 days or beyond. Looking at weather patterns beyond that, gets you into averages of accumulated year’s data. Don’t prepare and go based on that.
Our advice is to prepare for various scenarios. Have the proper gear for all. Preferably check the local Supai area weather 3 days prior for what is being predicted for your trip. Then check each day up until your departure. Start adjusting as needed. This might mean warmer sleeping bags, or additional layers of clothing, or reducing if it is getting warmer/hotter. Don’t bet on it not raining even if not predicted.
Have your extra gear along in your vehicle if at all possible. Adjust your final “go” items the day you depart. The main concern is a wild cold front coming in and dropping temperatures down lower than people are prepared for. This is more of a concern for Fall, Winter, and Spring.
You can’t get warm if you don’t have the gear to do it. Hypothermia is a very serious concern should it rain. Even in warmer months.
Heat is another story concerning having additional water. Having a hat and sunscreen. People not acclimated to the desert have no idea how fast medical problems can creep up on you. At least with heat you can shed gear if you get into an emergency. Even so, I have to think heat related problems are more prevalent on this trip, than hypothermia.
An emergency due to cold, and being ill prepared for it, becomes difficult to deal with too. Do not go without rain gear or a poncho.
Nights in the desert can become extremely cold compared to daytime temperatures. Low humidity levels in the desert makes things seem much colder than it might really be. Take appropriate clothing and sleeping gear.
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